Workshop on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Predictability of Monsoons

22 - 24 June 2015

National Institute of Meteorological Research
Jeju, Republic of Korea

Photo by Dr. Byunghwan Lim

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Workshop Program (as of 26 May 2015)


12h00m Registration
13h00m Opening
- Director General of NIMR
- President of CAS
- WMO Secretariat
13h20m Introduction/Orientation of the Workshop
- F. Vitart / A. Robertson
13h50m Monsoon Research in S2S
• Subseasonal Prediction of Australian Summer Monsoon Active and Break Episodes H. H. Hendon, BoM
14h20m 1st Session: Application (3 x 20 min and 1 x 30 min talk) (A. Robertson)
• Technological Challenges for better use of S2S outcomes for Agrometeorology B.-L. Lee, CAgM
• Perspectives on integrated research on disaster risk R. Klein, IRDR
• Applications of sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions in disaster risk management Maarten van Aalst, Red Cross(via telecon)
15h50m Coffee Break
16h20m 2nd Session: ISO (2 x 30 min talk) (B. Wang)
• Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation: Characteristics, Impacts, Predictability, and Prediction J.-Y. Lee, PNU
• Predictability of East Asia summer monsoon in Multi Model Ensemble forecast J.-H. Yoo, APCC
17h20m 1st Group Discussion Session on Application
(Moderator: A. Robertson, Rapporteur: T. Nakazawa)
18h50m Group Photo
19h00m Adjourn
9h00m 3rd Session: East Asian Monsoon (2 x 30 min talk) (F. Vitart)
• Intraseasonal variation of the strength of the East Asian trough and its climatic impacts in boreal winter L. Wang, IAP
• Evaluation of sub-seasonal and seasonal precipitation prediction using BCC_CSM over East Asian monsoon region Y. Zhang, Nanjing Univ
10h00m Coffee Break
10h30m 4th Session: African & American Monsoons (2 x 30 min talk) (A. Kumar)
• Predictability of Sahelian Climate Characteristics and Impacts O. Ndiaye, Senegal
• The MJO impact on precipitation and extreme events of the South American summer monsoon A. Grimm, Federal Univ. of Parana
11h30m 5th Session: Indian Monsoon (3 x 30 min talk) (T. Y. Koh)
• Model evaluation metrics of the boreal summer ISV Neena MANI, JPL
• Role of Bay of Bengal in Indian Monsoon Sub-Seasonal Rainfall A. K. Mitra, NCMRWF
• Dynamical extended range prediction of onset, withdrawal and extreme weather events during Indian summer monsoon S. Joseph, IITM
13h00m Lunch
14h15m 2nd Group Discussion Session on Monsoon Prediction
(Moderator: H. Hendon, Rapporteur: M. Rixen)
15h45m 6th Sesson: Monsoon Systems
• Predictions of monsoon variability in the ECMWF seasonal and sub-seasonal ensemble forecast systems F. Molteni, ECMWF(via telecon)
16h15m Coffee Break
16h30m Poster Session
18h00m Adjourn (Move to Hotel Bareve)
18h30m Banquet at Hotel Bareve
9h00m 6th Session: Monsoon Systems (3 x 30 min talk) (H. Lin)
• Extended-range forecast experiments with NICAM using the K computer M. Satoh, Univ. of Tokyo
• Regional Climate Downscale Experiment in the Tropics T.-Y. Koh, Nanyang Tech. Univ.
• Prediction of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall S.-Y. Yim, KMA
10h30m Coffee Break
11h00m 7th Session: Maritime Continent (1 x 30 min talk) (H. Hendon)
• Sub-seasonal prediction for the Maritime Continent: research questions and plans S. Woolnough, UK
11h30m 3rd Group Discussion Session on Coupled Modeling
(Moderator: F. Vitart, Rapporteur: S. Woolnough)
13h00m Lunch
14h15m Wrap Up Session with Recommendation
(F. Vitart, A. Robertson, H. Hendon)
16h00m Adjourn

Extended Abstracts


Title Authour
1.Subseasonal Prediction of Australian Summer Monsoon Active and Break Episodes Harry HENDON and Andrew MARSHALL
2.Instraseasonal variation of the strength of the East Asian trough and its climatic impacts in boreal winter Lin WANG, Lei SONG, Wen CHEN, and Yang ZHANG
3.Evaluation of sub-seasonal and seasonal precipitation over East Asian monsoon region using BCC_CSM model Chunhui LI and Yaocun ZHANG
4.Extended-range forecast experiments with NICAM using K computer Masaki SATOH, Masuo NAKANO, Tomoki MIYAKAWA, Yoshiyuki KAJIKAWA, Yoshiaki MIYAMOTO, and Chihiro KODAMA
5.Performance of the sub-seasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon Qiaoping LI, Tongwen WU, Xiangwen LIU, Xiaoyun LIANG, and Yanjie CHENG
6.Predictability of precipitation during the South Asian summer monsoon onset period Yuhei TAKAYA and Chihiro MATSUKAWA
7.The JMA’s one-month ensemble prediction system and its performance Yuhei TAKAYA and co-authers
8.Skill assessment of real-time BSISO forecasts: APCC’s ceaseless efforts to improve subseaonal monsoon prediction Hae-Jeong KIM, Yoo-Rim JUNG, and Hye-In JEONG
9.Could the S2S database predict a MJO in March 2015? Tetsuo NAKAZAWA, Mio MATSUEDA, and Frederic VITART
10.Dynamical seasonal prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon and its decadal change Daehyng KANG and Myong-In LEE
11.Evaluation of boreal winter MJO teleconnection patterns simulated by dynamical seasonal prediction systems Hyerim KIM and Myong-In LEE
12.Predictability of four modes with distinguished intraseasonal phases of the East Asia-western North Pacific summer monsoon Hyoeun OH and Kyung-Ja HA

Poster Presentations (as of 26 May 2015)


Title Authour
1.Probabilistic assessment of rainy season onset forecasts for Sao Paulo C. Coelho, CPTEC, Brazil
2.Intraseasonal Oscillation Modulation on Extreme Rainfall in Southern China and its Application to Extended-range Forecast P.-C. Hsu, Nanjin Univ. of Info. Sci. & Tech., China
3.Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of the East Asian Winter Monsoon and Its Decadal Change D.-H. Kang, UNIST, Republic of Korea
4.Skill assessment of real-time BSISO index: APCC’s ceaseless efforts to improve subseasonal prediction of monsoon H.-J. Kim, APCC, Republic of Korea
5.Evaluation of Boreal Winter MJO Teleconnection Patterns Simulated by Dynamical Seasonal Prediction Systems H.-R. Kim, UNIST, Republic of Korea
6.Performance of the sub-seasonal forecasting of the Asian monsoon by BCC-CSM1.2 Q. Li, Beijing Clim. Center, China
7.Assessment of Prediction Skill and Predictability of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in Dynamic Models N. J. Mani, JPL, USA
8.Could the S2S database predict a MJO in March 2015? T. Nakazawa, NIMR, Republic of Korea
9.Predictability of four modes with distinguished intraseasonal phases of the EA-WNP summer monsoon H. Oh, Pusan National Univ., Republic of Korea
10.Weather types across the Maritime Continent: From the diurnal cycle to interannual variations A. Robertson, IRI, USA
11.Predictability of precipitation during the South Asian summer monsoon onset period Y. Takaya, JMA, Japan
12.The JMA's One-month Ensemble Prediction System and its Performance Y. Takaya, JMA, Japan
13.Precursors of January surface air temperature anomalies in China G. Tan, Nanjin Univ. of Info. Sci. & Tech., China
14.Improving GCM monsoon and MJO dynamics by stable water isotopes O. Tuinenburg, LMD, France
15.Asian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 model S. J. Johnson, Univ. of Reading, UK

Information to Participants


Please download the following documents. The document [Information] covers all information you need to participate to the workshop, including three Forms; Visa Form, Registration Form, and Flight Information and Hotel Reservation Form. You can also download these Forms separately

First Announcement

Information

Visa Form

Registration Form
(Due on 6 June 2015)

Flight Information and Hotel Reservation Form
(Due on 12 June 2015)

About Seogwipo City

Aim of the workshop


The workshop will provide a forum for researchers and forecasters to discuss recent advances and current issues covering the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of monsoons. The workshop will shed light on the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of monsoons, with an emphasis on lead times of 2 to 4 weeks on the following themes.

  • (a) Prediction of the onset and cessation of the monsoon
  • (b) Prediction of high-impact weather events and dry and wet spells during the monsoon season
  • (c) Use of coupled ocean-atmosphere models for monsoon prediction
  • (d) Statistical prediction of the monsoons
  • (e) Prediction of monsoon impacts at local scale for applications

Focus


The main focus of the workshop will be on the prediction of the onset and cessation of the monsoon, and on the prediction of active and break phases, including dry and wet spells during the monsoon season, with an emphasis on lead times of 2 to 4 weeks.
The workshop will cover all the monsoon regions around the world.
The workshop will cover several themes related to the monsoon sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction:

  • intra-seasonal variability
  • use of coupled ocean-atmosphere models for monsoon prediction
  • statistical prediction of the monsoons and prediction of monsoon impacts at local scale

Organized by


International Organizing Committee

Tetsuo Nakazawa (S2S International Coordination Office)
Frederic Vitart (S2S SG Co-Chair)
Andrew Robertson (S2S SG Co-Chair)
Harry Hendon (S2S SG Monsoon Sub-project leader)

Local Organizing Committee

Hyun-Suk Kang (NIMR)
June-Yi Lee (Pusan National University)
Tetsuo Nakazawa (S2S ICO)

Sponsors