Objectives

  1. To improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events
  2. To promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centres and exploitation by the applications community
  3. To capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services

Background

  1. The WMO Commission of Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) requested at its 15th session (Nov 2009) that WCRP, WWRP and THORPEX set up an appropriate collaborative structure for subseasonal prediction.
  2. A WCRP/WWRP/THORPEX workshop was held at Exeter in Dec 2010 which recommended formation of a Planning Group to write an implementation plan for an S2S project under WCRP-WWRP-THORPEX sponsorship
  3. The implementation plan was written in 2012, was endorsed by the WWRP and WCRP JSCs, and creation of the Subseasonal to seasonal prediction project was approved by the WMO Executive Council, which also approved the creation of a project office and a trust fund for sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction.
  4. Term of references have been drafted:. The project will last 5 years starting in 2013 with the option to extend based on a review of progress, achievements and remaining gaps.

Research Priorities

  1. Evaluate potential predictability of subseasonal events, including identifying windows of opportunity for increased forecast skill.
  2. Understand systematic errors and biases in the subseasonal to seasonal forecast range
  3. Compare, verify and test multi-model combinations from these forecasts and quantify their uncertainty.
  4. Focus on some specific extreme event case studies.

Scientific issues

  1. Identify sources of predictability at the sub-seasonal to seasonal time-range.
  2. Prediction of the MJO and its impacts in numerical models
  3. Teleconnections - forecasts of opportunity
  4. Monsoon prediction.
  5. Rainfall predictability and extreme events
  6. Polar prediction and sea-ice
  7. Stratospheric processes

Modelling issues

  1. Role of resolution
  2. Role of ocean-atmosphere coupling
  3. Teleconnections - forecasts of opportunity
  4. Systematic errors.
  5. Initialisation strategies for subseasonal prediction
  6. Ensemble generation
  7. Spread/skill relationship
  8. Verification

International Coordination Office

  • Address:
    33 seohobuk-ro, Seogwipo-si, Jeju 63568, Republic of Korea
  • Phone:
    +82-64-780-6653
  • Fax:
    +82-64-738-9075

International Access

Access to the Jeju International Airport is available. Visitors are also able to arrive in Jeju by domestic flights after transiting from international flights at the Incheon International Airport.

Contact Point