Information on regional workshops

The Sixty Second Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 62) for the October to December (OND) 2022 season will be held on 25 August 2022. The forum will be preceded by a PreCOF workshop (15-19 August 2022) where climate scientists from ICPAC Member States will review and develop national, subregional, and regional objective seasonal predictions for OND 2022. A number of co-production workshops in key sectors including, Agriculture, Water, Energy, Health, Livestock, Conflict, and Disaster Risk Management will be held during 23-24 August 2022. Details will be updated at GHACOF62 website.

The Sixty First Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 61) for the June to September (JJAS) 2022 season was  held on 19 May 2022. The forum was  preceded by a PreCOF workshop (16-20 May 2022) where climate scientists from ICPAC Member States will review and develop national, subregional, and regional objective seasonal predictions for JJAS 2022. A number of co-production workshops in key sectors including, Agriculture, Water, Energy, Health, Livestock, Conflict, and Disaster Risk Management will be held during 17-18 May 2022. 

The Sixtieth Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 60) for the March to May (MAM) 2022 season was  held on 17 February 2022. The forum was  preceded by a PreCOF workshop (7-11 February 2022) where climate scientists from ICPAC Member States will review and develop national, subregional, and regional objective seasonal predictions for MAM 2022. A number of co-production workshops in key sectors including, Agriculture, Water, Energy, Health, Livestock, Conflict, and Disaster Risk Management will be held during 15-16 February 2022. 

The First African Continental Climate Outlook Forum (AACCOF-01) will be conducted virtually on 4 February 2022. The forum is organized by the African Centre for Meteorological Applications and Development (ACMAD) as a WMO Regional Climate Centre (RCC) for Africa. This forum is the first of its kind at the continental scale. The forum ensures that there is improved capacity amongst established and upcoming RCCs to regionalize products from WMO designated Global Centres and also provide a platform for technical discussions on drivers of our continental climate, interregional interactions. The forum will review the September-December (SOND) 2021 seasonal climate across the continent and ultimately produce a continental consensus climate outlook for the February to April (FMAM) 2022 period.

Objective Climate Forecasts for Agriculture and Food Security Sector in Eastern and Southern Africa and AICCRA Regional Training for East and Southern Africa Capacity building initiatives over Eastern and Southern Africa.pdf

Institutions/Projects in the region working on S2S

PAST PROJECTS

ICPAC is one of the implementing partners in the GCRF African-SWIFT: The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) is a WMO accredited Regional Climate Centre  that provides climate services over Eastern Africa region. The centre is one of the implementing partners in the  Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) African Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques (GCRF African-SWIFT). ICPAC is one of the implementing partners in the GCRF African.docx

GCRF African SWIFT: The GCRF African-SWIFT is a coordinated programme of research from 2017 to 2022. It brings together 5 UK partners and 10 African partners (national, regional and continental operational forecasting centres and public universities) to build research capabilities and improve tropical weather forecasting from hourly to seasonal time scales in Africa. The programme is funded by Research Councils UK through the UK Global Challenges Research Fund and led by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS).    

WISER Phase 2 Support to ICPAC (W2SIP): Focus was on increasing the use of co-produced reliable weather and climate services to inform decision making; and development of an objective seasonal forecast system for the region (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/working-with-other-organisations/international/projects/wiser/icpac-support).      

Towards Forecast based Preparedness Action (ForPAc): aims to improve the forecasting of droughts and floods, and improve the use of forecasts by integrating them into operational Early Warning Systems (EWS) and preparedness mechanisms using a systematic anticipatory approach of Forecast based Action (FbA) to promote pre-event interventions that lessen the need for and scale of post-event responses to disasters (http://www.shear.org.uk/research/ForPAc.html).   

CURRENT PROJECTS

Coproduction of Climate Services for East Africa: The main objective is to co-develop dedicated climate services for the water, energy and food security sectors with stakeholders and end-users, to enhance their ability to plan for and adapt to seasonal climate fluctuations. 

Down to Earth : Addresses the multi-faceted challenges of water scarcity and food insecurity under climate change within increasingly vulnerable rural populations in Horn of Africa Drylands.

Focus Africa: Develops tailored climate services in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region.

CLIMSA : aims to improve the production, access to and use of climate information, services and applications for decision makers.

Key regionally-relevant S2S research questions & activities being pursued in the region

1. Improved support in decision making over Eastern Africa through utilizing of real time S2S datasets

2. What is the impact of tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean  on the monthly and seasonal forecasts during the March to May season? ​

3. Where, in which season, and how strongly do tropical waves (e.g., MJO) contribute to rainfall intraseasonal variability over Africa? 

Publications 

2022

Dione, C., Talib, J., Bwaka, A.A., Kamga, A.F., Fouda, A.A.B., Hirons, L., Latt, A., Thompson, E., Lingani, C., Indasi, V.S. and Adefisan, E.A., 2022. Improved sub-seasonal forecasts to support preparedness action for meningitis outbreak in Africa. Climate Services, 28, p.100326.

Gudoshava, M., Wainwright, C., Hirons, L., Endris, H.S., Segele, Z.T., Woolnough, S., Atheru, Z. and Artan, G., 2022. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with early and late onset for Eastern Africa short rains. International Journal of Climatology.

Gudoshava, M., Wanzala, M., Thompson, E., Mwesigwa, J., Endris, H.S., Segele, Z., Hirons, L., Kipkogei, O., Mumbua, C., Njoka, W. and Baraibar, M., 2022. Application of real time S2S forecasts over Eastern Africa in the co-production of climate services. Climate Services, 27, p.100319.

Hounkpè, J., Merz, B., Badou, F.D., Bossa, A.Y., Yira, Y. and Lawin, E.A., 2022. Potential for seasonal flood forecasting in West Africa using climate indexes. Journal of Flood Risk Management, p.e12833.

Mawren, D., Blamey, R., Hermes, J. and Reason, C.J.C., 2022. On the importance of the Mozambique Channel for the climate of southeastern Africa. Climate Dynamics, pp.1-21.

Naabil, E., Kouadio, K., Lamptey, B., Annor, T. and Chukwudi Achugbu, I., 2022. Tono basin climate modeling, the potential advantage of fully coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro modeling System. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, pp.1-11.

Ouma, J., Nyaga, D.W.A.A.E., John, F.O., Kayijamahe, M.V.O.E., Munywa, S. and Artan, G., 2022. Forage Monitoring and Prediction Model for Early Warning Application over the East of Africa Region. Journal of Atmospheric Science Research| Volume, 5(04).

Wanzala MA, Stephens EM, Cloke HL, Ficchi A. Hydrological model preselection with a filter sequence for the national flood forecasting system in Kenya. Journal of Flood Risk Management. 2022 Jul 19.

Wanzala, M.A., Ficchi, A., Cloke, H.L., Stephens, E.M., Badjana, H.M. and Lavers, D.A., 2022. Assessment of global reanalysis precipitation for hydrological modelling in data-scarce regions: A case study of Kenya. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 41, p.101105.

2021

de Andrade, F.M., Young, M.P., MacLeod, D., Hirons, L.C., Woolnough, S.J. and Black, E., 2021. Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction for Africa: Forecast Evaluation and Sources of Predictability. Weather and Forecasting, 36(1), pp.265-284.

Endris, H.S., Hirons, L., Segele, Z.T., Gudoshava, M., Woolnough, S. and Artan, G.A., 2021. Evaluation of the Skill of Monthly Precipitation Forecasts from Global Prediction Systems over the Greater Horn of Africa. Weather and Forecasting, 36(4), pp.1275-1298.

Engelbrecht, C.J., Phakula, S., Landman, W.A. and Engelbrecht, F.A., 2021. Subseasonal deterministic prediction skill of low-level geopotential height affecting southern Africa. Weather and Forecasting, 36(1), pp.195-205. 

Guigma, K.H., MacLeod, D., Todd, M. and Wang, Y., 2021. Prediction skill of Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead times and importance of atmospheric tropical modes of variability. Climate Dynamics, pp.1-20.

Hirons, L., Thompson, E., Dione, C., Indasi, V.S., Kilavi, M., Nkiaka, E., Talib, J., Visman, E., Adefisan, E.A., de Andrade, F. and Ashong, J., 2021. Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa. Climate Services, 23, p.100246.

Hirons, L., Woolnough, S., Dione, C., Thompson, E., de Andrade, F., Talib, J., Konte, O., Diedhiou, T., Quaye, D., Opoku, N. and Lawal, K., 2021. GCRF African SWIFT White Paper Policy Brief. Exploiting Sub-seasonal Forecast Predictability in Africa: a key to sustainable development.

Kolstad, E.W., 2021. Prediction and precursors of Idai and 38 other tropical cyclones and storms in the Mozambique Channel. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147(734), pp.45-57.

Kolstad, E.W., Macleod, D. and Demissie, T.D., 2021. Drivers of subseasonal forecast errors of the East African short rains. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(14), p.e2021GL093292.

Lawal, K.A., Olaniyan, E., Ishiyaku, I., Hirons, L.C., Thompson, E., Talib, J., Boult, V.L., Ogungbenro, S.B., Gbode, I.E., Ajayi, V.O. and Okogbue, E.C., 2021. Progress and challenges of demand-led co-produced sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts in Nigeria. Frontiers in Climate, p.109. 

MacLeod, D.A., Dankers, R., Graham, R., Guigma, K., Jenkins, L., Todd, M.C., Kiptum, A., Kilavi, M., Njogu, A. and Mwangi, E., 2021. Drivers and subseasonal predictability of heavy rainfall in equatorial East Africa and relationship with flood risk. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22(4), pp.887-903.

Moron, V. and Robertson, A.W., 2021. Relationships between subseasonal‐to‐seasonal predictability and spatial scales in tropical rainfall. International Journal of Climatology. 

Musonda, B., Jing, Y., Nyasulu, M. and Mumo, L., 2021. Evaluation of sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecast over Zambia. Journal of Earth System Science, 130(1), pp.1-12. 

Parker, D.J., Blyth, A.M., Woolnough, S.J., Dougill, A.J., Bain, C.L., de Coning, E., Diop-Kane, M., Kamga Foamouhoue, A., Lamptey, B., Ndiaye, O. and Ruti, P., 2021. The African SWIFT project: growing science capability to bring about a revolution in weather prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, pp.1-53.

Silvério, K.C. and Grimm, A.M., 2021. Southern African monsoon: intraseasonal variability and monsoon indices. Climate Dynamics, pp.1-28.

Youds, L.H., Parker, D.J., Adefisan, E.A., Antwi-Agyei, P., Bain, C.L., Black, E.C.L., Blyth, A.M., Dougill, A.J., Hirons, L.C., Indasi, V.S. and Lamptey, B.L., 2021. GCRF African SWIFT and ForPAc SHEAR White Paper on the Potential of Operational Weather Prediction to Save Lives and Improve Livelihoods and Economies in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Zhou, X., Chen, L., Umuhoza, J., Cheng, Y., Wang, L. and Wang, R., 2021. Intraseasonal oscillation of the rainfall variability over Rwanda and evaluation of its subseasonal forecasting skill. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 14(6), p.100099