Membership

Joanne Robbins, co-lead (UKMO, UK)

Christopher J. White, co-lead (University of Strathclyde, UK)

Daniela Domeisen (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

Andrew W. Robertson (IRI, USA)

Angel Muñoz (IRI, USA)

Science objectives

The Applications sub-project aims to support the uptake and use of S2S predictions by providing a resource for the global community of researchers, modellers and practitioners who are exploring and promoting cross-sectoral services and applications of S2S predictions.

It’s objectives are to:

–      Support the uptake and use of S2S predictions through a resources for the global community of researchers, modellers and practitioners

–      Promote the S2S timescale to the wider user community through workshops/meetings and coordinated papers

–      Encourage co-production of S2S applications and services

–      Explore cross-sectoral users and decision-makers needs and wants

–      Understand what decisions are made on S2S timescales

–      Identify what applications and methods of communication are appropriate for various sectors

–      Build on the Real-Time Pilot to provide a more cohesive network of application-orientated researchers

Current activities

S2S predictions are bridging the gap between weather forecasts and long-range predictions. Decisions in various sectors are made in this forecast timescale, therefore there is a strong demand for this new generation of predictions. While much of the focus in recent years has been on improving forecast skill, if S2S predictions are to be used effectively, it is important that along with scientific advances, we also know how best to develop, communicate and apply these forecasts. This new Applications sub-project, currently in development, will provide a focal point for research focused towards S2S applications by exploring the value of applications-relevant S2S forecasts and highlighting the opportunities and challenges facing their uptake.

Current activities being led by or involving the Applications sub-project include:

–      A coordinated global community effort has been underway over the last couple of years, aimed at collating and summarizing the experiences of application-relevant forecasts on the S2S timescale across sectors and regions. Involving over 60 authors and focusing on 12 sectoral S2S application case studies spanning the public health, agriculture, water resource management, energy and utilities, and emergency management and response domains. We are drawing on recent advancements to explore the use and utility of S2S predictions and demonstrate how they can be employed to maximize societal benefit. A new paper, to be published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) over the next couple of months, documents and explores these 12 studies, highlighting common challenges and learnings, and why it is appropriate to integrate S2S forecasts with other predictive, verification and risk-based systems for various decision-making purposes to seamlessly extend the forecast horizon.

–      Creating links to the Real-Time Pilot initiative, plus other initiatives including HIWeather.

–      Exploring promotion and dissemination activities through conferences and workshops, e.g. EGU 2022 in Vienna, Austria.

–      Initial plans for a Real-Time Pilot / applications workshop in 2022.

Other WMO and community-led applications activities

Supported by the S2S Prediction project, the ongoing Real-Time Pilot initiative http://s2sprediction.net/xwiki/bin/view/dtbs/RealtimePilot is making S2S forecasts available to 15 selected projects that are addressing user needs over a two year period (November 2019 through to November 2022). By making this real-time data available, the initiative is drawing on the collective experiences of the researcher and user communities from across the projects. The Real-Time Pilot will develop best practice guidelines for producing useful and useable, application-orientated forecasts and tools that can be used to guide future S2S application development. We will present an update on the initiative, including results from an initial set of questionnaires that focussed on engagement strategies and practices, supporting a review of how projects were designs, the roles and responsibilities of different project participants and the methods used to determine project success.

Contact

Dr Joanne Robbins and Dr Christopher White are co-leading the Applications sub-project. You can contact them via email (joanne.robbins@metoffice.gov.uk and chris.white@strath.ac.uk) if you have queries or comments related to the sub-project or wish to get involved.