• Introduction

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  The subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction, which corresponds to predictions beyond two weeks but less than a season, fills this gap between weather and climate forecasting. It has immense social-economic benefits for hazard prevention and risk management as well as economic planning. Considering the recent changes happening in the spatial and temporal characteristics of weather and climate systems, the importance of S2S prediction has multiplied manifold. 

  The physical basis for S2S prediction is primarily rooted in the intrinsic predictability of large-scale circulation associated with the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the form of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISOs) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The evolution of El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), soil moisture, snow cover and sea ice, stratosphere-troposphere interactions, ocean conditions and tropical-extratropical teleconnections also influences the S2S predictability.

  South Asia is famous for its monsoon and the S2S predictability of the South Asian monsoon is affected by the tropical ISOs.   

• Information on regional events 

5. Seventh WMO International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-7), 23-26 March 2022, New Delhi, India

The International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM) is a major quadrennial symposia/workshops series under the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The seventh workshop in this series, the IWM-7, is being organized at New Delhi, India, jointly by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India, and the WWRP Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research (WGTMR), in cooperation with the CLIVAR/GEWEX Monsoons Panel of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the International Monsoons Project Office (IMPO) hosted by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). The workshop is scheduled to be held during 23-26 March 2022.

The IWM provides a forum for researchers and forecasters to discuss recent advances and current issues involving monsoons as key features of earth-system phenomena covering weather-to-climate time scales affecting large populations around the world. The emphasis is to address monsoon impacts as part of the societal challenges prioritized by the WWRP: high-impact weather, water, agriculture, urbanization and new technologies, in monsoon regions around the world. Outcomes from the workshop are expected to facilitate the transfer of new science and technology to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in these regions.

For more details, please visit https://community.wmo.int/news/wgtmr1st-circular-and-call-papers-seventh-wmo-international-workshop-monsoons-iwm-7

Interested participants are invited to send abstracts of their proposed presentations (oral as well as poster) by 31 October 2021. The abstracts (of maximum 300 words) should be submitted online for which, an online portal https://mausam.imd.gov.in/IWM7/form/form.php for the submission of abstract has been created.

Those who have already submitted the abstract earlier may kindly submit it again through this online portal. The abstracts should include the name(s) of the author(s), affiliation(s), mailing address and e-mail address and phone number of the corresponding author. The theme (one of the above eight themes) to which the abstract pertains should also be clearly mentioned.

4. ONLINE TRAINING WORKSHOP ON "SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL (S2S) PREDICTION OF MONSOONS", 1 - 12 November 2021

    in Conjunction with the Seventh WMO International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-7) to be held in early 2022 in India

    LAST DATE FOR ONLINE REGISTRATION: 15 AUGUST 2021

    The IWM series provides a forum for researchers and forecasters to discuss recent advances and current issues involving monsoons as an example of an earth-system phenomenon covering weather-to-climate time scales affecting large populations around the world. The emphasis is to address monsoon impacts as part of the societal challenges of the WWRP: high-impact weather, water, agriculture, urbanization, and new technologies, in monsoon regions around the world. The outcomes of IWM are sought to transfer new science and technology to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services over the relevant monsoon regions. The IWM-7 has two components, an online training workshop in November 2021 and a scientific workshop in spring 2022 (the exact date, venue, and format to be decided).

    The training workshop will be focused on the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of monsoons and will offer short courses to NMHS forecasters. Specific topics will include
    1.S2S predictability sources.
    2.Access to the S2S database and tools
    3.Model validation and forecast verification
    4.Calibration and ensemble techniques.

    A pre-workshop orientation course will be offered before the main training workshop to introduce and facilitate the data and tools to be compiled by the trainees in advance and to familiarize the trainees with the workshop procedures including the practical sessions.

    Please visit https://icmpo.tropmet.res.in/iwm7training.php for more details on the workshop.

3. S2S Webinar on “S2S Forecast and its applications in South Asia”:

    WMO S2S Working Group and International CLIVAR Monsoon Project Office (ICMPO) with active support from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), India organized a one-day webinar on “S2S Forecast and its applications in South Asia” on 28 July 2021 during 1100-1300 UTC (1630-1830 IST)at IITM, Pune, India.

    The webinar had four talks from scientists and users who are from the S2S prediction and application areas. This was a part of the monthly webinar series organized by the WMO S2S Prediction Project.

    The recording of the webinar is available at:  https://youtu.be/-A15D1pl0BY

    For details of the webinar, please visit https://icmpo.tropmet.res.in/webinarseries.php

2. International Symposium on Tropical Meteorology (INTROMET-2021) ON CHANGING CLIMATE: CONSEQUENCES AND CHALLENGES (C4-21), November 23-26, 2021:

• Institutions/Projects in the region working on S2S

  1. National Monsoon Mission

  Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India has launched the 'National Monsoon Mission' (NMM) with a vision to develop a state-of-the-art dynamical prediction system for monsoon rainfall on different time scales. MoES has bestowed the responsibility of execution and coordination of this mission to the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune. For this national mission, IITM is collaborating with NCEP (USA), MoES organisations and various academic institutions/organizations under NMM. Climate Forecast System (CFS) of NCEP, USA has been identified as the basic modelling system for the above purpose, as it is one of the best among the currently available coupled models.

  2. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India

  Under the National Monsoon Mission (NMM) Project of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) started extended range prediction efforts in 2011 by adopting the Climate Forecast System (CFS) from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA. An ensemble prediction system (EPS) has been developed for the ERP by using an indigenous perturbation technique, which was later developed into a multi-model EPS.

  The extended range prediction products for research/scientific use that are generated from the multi-model ensemble prediction system (MMEPS) developed indigenously by IITM are updated every Thursday at https://www.tropmet.res.in/erpas/index.php

• Key regionally-relevant S2S research questions & activities being pursued in the region

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• Publications

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