Introduction

Information on regional workshops

The Sixtieth Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 60) for the March to May (MAM) 2022 season will be held on 17 February 2022. The forum will be preceded by a PreCOF workshop (7-11 February 2022) where climate scientists from ICPAC Member States will review and develop national, subregional, and regional objective seasonal predictions for MAM 2022. A number of co-production workshops in key sectors including, Agriculture, Water, Energy, Health, Livestock, Conflict, and Disaster Risk Management will be held during 15-16 February 2022. Details will be updated at GHACOF 60

Objective Climate Forecasts for Agriculture and Food Security Sector in Eastern and Southern Africa and AICCRA Regional Training for East and Southern Africa Capacity building initiatives over Eastern and Southern Africa.pdf

Institutions/Projects in the region working on S2S

ICPAC is one of the implementing partners in the GCRF African-SWIFT: The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) is a WMO accredited Regional Climate Centre  that provides climate services over Eastern Africa region. The centre is one of the implementing partners in the  Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) African Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques (GCRF African-SWIFT). ICPAC is one of the implementing partners in the GCRF African.docx

GCRF African SWIFT: The GCRF African-SWIFT is a coordinated programme of research from 2017 to 2022. It brings together 5 UK partners and 10 African partners (national, regional and continental operational forecasting centres and public universities) to build research capabilities and improve tropical weather forecasting from hourly to seasonal time scales in Africa. The programme is funded by Research Councils UK through the UK Global Challenges Research Fund and led by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS).    

WISER Phase 2 Support to ICPAC (W2SIP): Focus was on increasing the use of co-produced reliable weather and climate services to inform decision making; and development of an objective seasonal forecast system for the region (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/working-with-other-organisations/international/projects/wiser/icpac-support).      

Towards Forecast based Preparedness Action (ForPAc): aims to improve the forecasting of droughts and floods, and improve the use of forecasts by integrating them into operational Early Warning Systems (EWS) and preparedness mechanisms using a systematic anticipatory approach of Forecast based Action (FbA) to promote pre-event interventions that lessen the need for and scale of post-event responses to disasters (http://www.shear.org.uk/research/ForPAc.html).   

Key regionally-relevant S2S research questions & activities being pursued in the region

1. Improved support in decision making over Eastern Africa through utilizing of real time S2S datasets

Publications 

2021

Endris, H.S., Hirons, L., Segele, Z.T., Gudoshava, M., Woolnough, S. and Artan, G.A., 2021. Evaluation of the Skill of Monthly Precipitation Forecasts from Global Prediction Systems over the Greater Horn of Africa. Weather and Forecasting, 36(4), pp.1275-1298.

Hirons, L., Woolnough, S., Dione, C., Thompson, E., de Andrade, F., Talib, J., Konte, O., Diedhiou, T., Quaye, D., Opoku, N. and Lawal, K., 2021. GCRF African SWIFT White Paper Policy Brief. Exploiting Sub-seasonal Forecast Predictability in Africa: a key to sustainable development.

Hirons, L., Thompson, E., Dione, C., Indasi, V.S., Kilavi, M., Nkiaka, E., Talib, J., Visman, E., Adefisan, E.A., de Andrade, F. and Ashong, J., 2021. Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa. Climate Services, 23, p.100246.

Parker, D.J., Blyth, A.M., Woolnough, S.J., Dougill, A.J., Bain, C.L., de Coning, E., Diop-Kane, M., Kamga Foamouhoue, A., Lamptey, B., Ndiaye, O. and Ruti, P., 2021. The African SWIFT project: growing science capability to bring about a revolution in weather prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, pp.1-53.

Mwangi, E., Taylor, O., Todd, M.C., Visman, E., Kniveton, D., Kilavi, M., Ndegwa, W., Otieno, G., Waruru, S., Mwangi, J. and Ambani, M., 2021. Mainstreaming forecast based action into national disaster risk management systems: experience from drought risk management in Kenya. Climate and Development, pp.1-16.

White, C.J., Domeisen, D.I., Acharya, N., Adefisan, E.A., Anderson, M.L., Aura, S., Balogun, A.A., Bertram, D., Bluhm, S., Brayshaw, D.J. and Browell, J., 2021. Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, pp.1-57.