What is the purpose of this Initiative?

The main goal of the project is to improve the skill of sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts, demonstrate the value of S2S forecasts to different GFCS sectors, promote interdisciplinary research for the development of “Ready-Set- Go” type S2S applications, and to better understand user’s needs and S2S forecast limitations. Through a number of agreed upon sub-projects, the Real Time Pilot Initiative will identify what is required in order to make S2S forecast data usable and how this varies between users in different sectors, different organisations within a sector and organisations with different levels of weather and climate knowledge and experience. The initiative formally started on 1^st November 2019, allowing real-time S2S forecasts to be made available to a set of individual sub-projects for a two-year period (up to 31^st October 2021). This will enable user-orientated applications to be designed, developed and tested with users. We are keen to gather information from researchers and users involved in these sub-projects on how the projects evolve and what methods are being used (e.g. for engagement, co-development and evaluation) to develop user orientated S2S applications. Feedback will be solicited through questionnaires and responses will be synthesised to generate best-practice guidance to support future S2S applications work.

Who is involved? 

16 projects are participating in the S2S Real Time Pilot Initiative. The projects cover a wide range of geographical areas and are focused on a providing applications for a range different sectors (e.g. energy, agriculture, health, civil protection, humanitarian, water, forestry, media). The names of projects and more information about each of them can be found here: http://s2sprediction.net/file/documents_reports/16Projects.pdf 

1. Sea Ice Prediction Network Phase 2
2. Monthly Climate Outlooks
3. Experimental Subseasonal Forecasting of Atmospheric Rivers along the US West Coast
4. ForPAc: Towards Forecast-based Preparedness Action
5. Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC)
6. Navy Earth System Prediction Capability
7. Digiscape
8. S2S4E Sub-seasonal to seasonal climate forecasting for energy
9. GCRF-African SWIFT
10. Intesa Operativa fra DPC e CNR-ISAC (Operational Agreement between Italian Civil Protection Agency and CNR-ISAC)
11. S2S for Disaster Risk Reduction in Southeast Asia
12. W2SIP (WISER support to ICPAC Project)
13. Multi-scale climate variability in South America and sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction
14. Tailoring sub-seasonal predictions for Early Warning Systems to support Public Health management - A Case Study in Rio Branco, Acre state, Brazilian Amazon
15. Understanding the mechanisms and predictability of persistent large-scale circulations patterns over North America leading to extreme fire weather conditions
16. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Today, for Tomorrow (ACToday) - A Columbia University World Project

How will we collect information?

There will be 3 questionnaires disseminated to sub-project researchers and users throughout the life of the Initiative. The first questionnaire will allow us to set a baseline across all sub-projects. The further two questionnaires will then allow us to obtain feedback on each sub-project’s progress and development. Questionnaires will be distributed in spring 2020, winter 2020/2021 and autumn 2021. At each dissemination, there will be one questionnaire distributed to researchers and another, separate questionnaire distributed to key users identified by each project. We will recommend that conference between the users and researchers during the completion of the questionnaires is kept to a minimum so that we can gather unbiased responses from each representative. All returned questionnaire responses will be treated as confidential and anonymous. Consent forms will be issued  which will need to be signed and returned.

What will happen to the results of the study? 

We will produce a report of the main findings which will be accessible via the S2S Prediction project website, and we will also publish finding in publications and via conferences which will also be made available to project participants.

Who should I contact for further info?

Dr Joanne Robbins is leading this initiative. You can contact this email (joanne.robbins@metoffice.gov.uk) if you have queries or comments related to this work.