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S2S Real-Time Pilot Initiative
What is the purpose of this Initiative?
The main goal of the project is to improve the skill of sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts, demonstrate the value of S2S forecasts to different GFCS sectors, promote interdisciplinary research for the development of “Ready-Set- Go” type S2S applications, and to better understand user’s needs and S2S forecast limitations. Through a number of agreed upon sub-projects, the Real Time Pilot Initiative will identify what is required in order to make S2S forecast data usable and how this varies between users in different sectors, different organisations within a sector and organisations with different levels of weather and climate knowledge and experience. The initiative formally started on 1st November 2019, allowing real-time S2S forecasts to be made available to a set of individual sub-projects for a two-year period (up to 31st October 2021). This will enable user-orientated applications to be designed, developed and tested with users. We are keen to gather information from researchers and users involved in these sub-projects on how the projects evolve and what methods are being used (e.g. for engagement, co-development and evaluation) to develop user orientated S2S applications. Feedback will be solicited through questionnaires and responses will be synthesised to generate best-practice guidance to support future S2S applications work.
Who is involved?
16 projects are participating in the S2S Real Time Pilot Initiative. The projects cover a wide range of geographical areas and are focused on a providing applications for a range different sectors (e.g. energy, agriculture, health, civil protection, humanitarian, water, forestry, media). The names of projects and more information about each of them can be found here: RTP Sub-project List
How will we collect information?
There will be 3 questionnaires disseminated to sub-project researchers and users throughout the life of the Initiative. The first questionnaire will allow us to set a baseline across all sub-projects. The further two questionnaires will then allow us to obtain feedback on each sub-project’s progress and development. Questionnaires will be distributed in spring 2020, winter 2020/2021 and autumn 2021. At each dissemination, there will be one questionnaire distributed to researchers and another, separate questionnaire distributed to key users identified by each project. We will recommend that conference between the users and researchers during the completion of the questionnaires is kept to a minimum so that we can gather unbiased responses from each representative. All returned questionnaire responses will be treated as confidential and anonymous.
- Questionnaire 1: | (disseminated spring 2020 and responses gathered from 13 projects)
- Questionnaire 2: | (disseminated winter 2021 and responses gathered from 10 projects)
During the summer of 2021, a further set of semi-structured interviews has been conducted with researchers and users of selected projects to gather additional detail on the questionnaire responses. Projects involved in this activity include:
- Experimental subseasonal forecasting of atmospheric rivers along the US west coast [Project #3]
- S2S4E: Subseasonal to seasonal climate forecasting for energy [Project #8]
- GCRF-African SWIFT [Project #9]
- Agreement between Italian Civil Protection & CNR-ISAC [Project #10]
- S2S for Disaster Risk Reduction in Southeast Asia [Project #11]
- W2SIP [Project #12]
- ACToday [Project #16]
In total 15 interviews were conducted of with 8 researchers and 7 users. Interviews are now being transcribed and synthesised. This work is being led by Rebecca Simmonds at the University of Strathclyde.
What will happen to the results of the study?
We will produce a report of the main findings which will be accessible via the S2S Prediction project website, and we will also publish finding in publications and via conferences which will also be made available to project participants.
Who should I contact for further info?
Dr Joanne Robbins is leading this initiative. You can contact this email (joanne.robbins@metoffice.gov.uk) if you have queries or comments related to this work.
How do I acknowledge the S2S Real Time Pilot in publications/research?
While we continue to deliver activities related to the S2S RTP, we're aware that there is no direct reference material available for referencing the S2S RTP. We therefore ask researchers and users publishing papers or presenting findings that using data provided through the S2S RTP, to please reference the S2S Phase 2 Implementation Plan. We also suggest that you include the following sentence in the acknowledgements section of peer-reviewed papers: 'This work makes use of forecasts that were made available through the WWRP/WCRP Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Project Real Time Pilot Initiative.'
This will enable use to track and capture the benefits of the S2S RTP for those projects involved.