Australia and South Pacific

Last modified by S2S_regionact on 2021/10/18 15:06

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Introduction


Information on regional workshops

Institutions/Projects in the region working on S2S

  • Forewarned is Forearmed (FWFA): This national project will deliver direct value to farmers by providing forecasts of extremes and equipping them with the information and tools to be forewarned and prepared. The project outputs aim to decrease the impacts of extreme climate events on farm, and on business profit. The Bureau, working with several research partners, will develop and deliver forecasts of the likelihood of climate extremes on multi-week and seasonal timescales — beyond the 7-day weather forecast. The products will be focused on heat, cold and rainfall extremes, for example, "What is the likelihood of having a decile 10 rainfall this spring?"; "What is the chance of having a heatwave in the week after next?"; "What is the chance that the upcoming month will be extremely hot?"; "What is the likelihood of having more heavy rainfall events than usual in the upcoming fortnight?". This will provide farmers with the first ever forecasts of climate extremes in the weeks to seasons ahead. More information: http://www.bom.gov.au/research/projects/FWFA/
  • Northern Australia Climate Program (NACP): NACP will deliver innovative research, development and extension outcomes to improve the capacity of the red meat industry to manage drought and climate risk across northern Australia. Drought is one of the biggest challenges graziers face and has a significant impact on agricultural output, productivity and on-farm income. One of the three sub-projects is focused on improving the basic science and operational skill of seasonal, sub-seasonal (multi-week) and multi-year climate forecasting systems of direct relevance to the northern Australia red meat industry. More information: http://www.bom.gov.au/research/projects/NACP/
  • Seasonal prediction of marine heatwaves: This collaborative project between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology seeks to develop an experimental seasonal marine heatwave (MHW) forecast product(s) for Australian waters, based on ACCESS-S, and conduct the underpinning research and verification required. These prototype MHW products would be based on ACCESS-S, supported by scientific publications and developed in collaboration with stakeholders. The expectation would be future inclusion into the existing operational seasonal ocean outlook service for Australia, expanding the current user base and adding value to the existing service. For more information, see here.
  • Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac): The primary aim of COSPPac to enhance the capacity of Pacific Islands to manage and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and tidal events. We work with stakeholders in the Islands to build tools that can forecast and report on climate, tides and the ocean. Aa part of this project, multi-week tropical cyclone outlooks for the North and South Pacific, and multiweek rainfall, tmax and tmin outlooks (and verification) are regularly provided in National Meteorological Service bulletins for a large number of Pacific Island countries. Outlooks can be accessed here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/pacific/outlooks/ 

Key regionally-relevant S2S research questions & activities being pursued in the region


Publications

  • Marshall AG, Gregory PAC.O. de Burgh-Day, and M. Griffiths, 2021: Subseasonal drivers of extreme fire weather in Australia and its prediction in ACCESS-S1 during spring and summer. Climate Dynamics.  
    doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05920-8
  • Marshall AG, Hendon HH, and Hudson D, 2021: Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on multiweek prediction of Australian rainfall extremes using the ACCESS-S1 prediction system. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. https://doi.org/10.1071/ES21001
  • Cowan T, Stone R, Wheeler M, and Griffiths M, 2020: Improving the seasonal prediction of Northern Australian rainfall onset to help with grazing management decisions, Climate Services. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100182.
  • de Burgh-Day C, Griffiths M, Yan H, Young G, Hudson D, Alves O, 2020: An adaptable framework for development and real time production of experimental sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast products, Bureau Research Report, No. 42. Bureau of Meteorology Australia.
  • King AD, Hudson D, Lim, E-P, Marshall AG, Hendon HH, Lane TP, Alves O. 2020: Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of rainfall extremes in Australia. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, doi:10.1002/qj.3789. 
  • Lim, Y., Son, SW., Marshall, A.G. et al. 2019: Influence of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models Climate Dynamics https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04719-y
  • Camp J, Wheeler MC, Hendon HH, Gregory PA, Marshall MG, Tory KJ, Watkins AB, MacLachlan C and Kuleshov Y, 2018: Skilful multiweek tropical cyclone prediction in ACCESS‐S1 and the role of the MJO. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3260K.
  • Smith, G.A. and Spillman, C.M., 2019: New high-resolution sea surface temperature forecasts for coral reef management on the Great Barrier Reef. Coral Reefs. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-019-01829-1
  • Marshall, A.G. and Hendon, H.H., 2019: Multi-week prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation with ACCESS-S1. Climate Dynamics, pp.1-16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4272-6
  • Hudson, D., Alves, O., Hendon, H.H., Lim, E., Liu, G., Luo J.-J., MacLachlan, C., Marshall, A.G., Shi, L., Wang, G., Wedd, R., Young, G., Zhao, M., Zhou X., 2017: ACCESS-S1: The new Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 67:3 132-159 https://doi.org/10.22499/3.6703.001


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