Phase-II: MJO Prediction and Teleconnections

During the second phase of the S2S project, the MJO prediction and teleconnections sub-project will focus on two major tasks:

These two tasks will be tackled in parallel and research activities to address related questions will be spread over the course of sub-project. Specific questions to address include:

a. How well do operational S2S models capture the observed relationship between the MJO and high impact weather events?

Current Projects

Publications

Advances in the subseasonal prediction of extreme events

Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Christopher J. White, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Ángel G. Muñoz, Matthew A. Janiga, Frédéric Vitart, C. Ole Wulff, Salomé Antoine, Constantin Ardilouze, Lauriane Batté, Hannah C. Bloomfield, David Brayshaw, Suzana J. Camargo, Andrew Charlton-Pérez, Dan Collins, Tim Cowan, Maria del Mar Chaves, Laura Ferranti, Rosario Gómez, Paula L.M. González, Carmen González Romero, Johnna M. Infanti, Stelios Karozis, Hera Kim, Erik W. Kolstad, Emerson LaJoie, Llorenç Lledó, Linus Magnusson, Piero Malguzzi, Andrea Manrique-Suñén, Daniele Mastrangelo, Stefano Materia, Hanoi Medina, Lluís Palma, Luis E. Pineda, Athanasios Sfetsos, Seok-Woo Son, Albert Soret, Sarah Strazzo, Di Tian

Findings: While extreme weather events are often not predicted in a deterministic sense more than a few days in advance, there is potential for probabilistic sub-seasonal prediction on timescales of several weeks for many extreme events. Here we provide an overview of subseasonal predictability for some of the most prominent extreme events on a global scale: heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, and tropical and extratropical cyclones. The Madden-Julian Oscillation provides added predictability for several of these extremes, including cold spells, precipitation extremes, and tropical cyclones.

Status: Submitted to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

b. How does the teleconnections depend on the horizontal, vertical and temporal structure of the diabatic heating anomalies associated with the MJO?

Current Projects

Publications

• Wang, J., H. Kim, D. Kim, S. A. Henderson, C. Stan, and E. D. Maloney (2020): MJO teleconnections over PNA region in climate models. Part II: Impacts of MJO and basic state. Journal of Climate, 33, 5081-5101, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0865.1 

c. Metrics for assessment of model teleconnections and diagnosing sources of errors in teleconnections

Current Projects

Publications

• Wang, J. H. Kim. D. Kim, S. A. Henderson, C.Stan, and E. D. Maloney (2020): MJO teleconnections over PNA region in climate models. Part I: Performance- and process-based skill metrics. Journal of Climate, 33, 1051-1067, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0269.1

• A. M. Jenney, D. A. Randall, E. A. Barnes  (2019): Quantifying Regional Sensitivities to Periodic Events: Application to the MJO. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,  https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029457

d. Does the relationship between the MJO and high impact weather events lead to enhanced predictive skill for these events for particular phases of the MJO or whilst there is strong MJO activity?

Current Projects

Publications

• A. M. Jenney, K. M. Nardi, E. A. Barnes, D. A. Randall (2019): The Seasonality and Regionality of MJO Impacts on North American Temperature, Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083950

e. How do variations in the slowly varying background state effect the Rossby wave source and the subsequent Rossby wave propagation from the source region?

Current Projects

Publications

• R. W. Lee, S. J. Woolnough, A. J. Charlton-Perez, F. Vitart (2019): ENSO modulation of MJO teleconnections to the North Atlantic and Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084683

Interested in joining the group? To subscribe to the group mailing list, please email to subseasonal_to_seasonal_prediction_mjo_tel