Changes for document Stratosphere Sub-Project

From version 16.1
edited by s2s_wiki
on 2021/04/25 23:06
To version 17.1
edited by s2s_wiki
on 2022/04/08 04:24
Change comment: added URLs for the under review papers (SNAPSI protocol and first biases paper)

Content changes

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34 34 d. Are biases linked to stratospheric processes/variability? E.g., are biases larger before or after SSWs, vortex intensifications, phases of the QBO, etc?
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37 - These efforts are being led by Zachary Lawrence. The current plan is to submit 1-2 community papers in late summer of 2021. If you would like to join these efforts, please contact the SNAP co-chairs (Amy Butler, NOAA and Chaim Garfinkel, Hebrew University) or Zachary Lawrence.
37 + These efforts are being led by Zachary Lawrence. The first paper is under review, and can be found at
38 38
39 +https:~/~/wcd.copernicus.org/preprints/wcd-2022-12/
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41 +A second community paper will be submitted in 2022. If you would like to join these efforts, please contact the SNAP co-chairs (Amy Butler, NOAA and Chaim Garfinkel, Hebrew University) or Zachary Lawrence.
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40 40 **Upcoming Activities:
41 41 __S__tratospheric __N__udging __A__nd __P__redictable __S__urface __I__mpacts (SNAPSI - **experiments for operational centres to perform that isolate the role of the stratosphere on predictive skill)
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56 56
57 57 The basic experimental protocol consists of a set of forecast ensembles: (1) a standard, free running forecast ensemble, (2) a 'perfect stratosphere' forecast in which the stratosphere is relaxed towards the observed evolution, and (3) a 'control' forecast in which the stratosphere is relaxed towards climatology. Further details of the experimental protocol will be described in an article soon to be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. To date, twelve modeling groups at eleven centers are planning to contribute integrations following this protocol. This will allow for an unprecedented, multi-model comparison of the dynamics underlying the surface responses to sudden stratospheric warmings. Moreover, by including 'counterfactual' forecasts in which the stratospheric circulation remains in a climatological state, the experimental protocol will allow for formal attribution statements to be made regarding the surface extremes that followed the stratospheric anomalies.
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59 -A preliminary version of the Experiment Protocol for damping experiments can be viewed here: [[http:~~/~~/s2sprediction.net/xwiki/bin/downloadrev/Phase2/Stratosphere/SNAP%20Nudging%20Protocol%20Description%20%2D%20Interim.pdf?rev=1.1>>http://s2sprediction.net/xwiki/bin/downloadrev/Phase2/Stratosphere/SNAP%20Nudging%20Protocol%20Description%20%2D%20Interim.pdf?rev=1.1]]
63 +The paper documenting the Experiment Protocol for damping experiments is under review:
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65 +https:~/~/gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gmd-2021-394/
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62 62 We have already held very fruitful discussions with QBOi and SATIO-TCS about a joint initiative that would explore stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the tropics using these same experiments, in addition to the four aforementioned goals. A rough timeline is:
63 63
64 -Q2 2021 – submission of paper outlining experimental protocol (with input from modelling centres)
65 -Q2 2021 – begin modelling experiments
66 -Q4 2021 – completion of modelling experiments and transfer of detailed dynamical diagnostics to a shared, open data repository
67 -Q1-Q3 2022 – analysis of damped runs and production of ~~4 papers on outcomes
70 +Q3 2022 – completion of modelling experiments and transfer of detailed dynamical diagnostics to a shared, open data repository
71 +Q3 2022-Q2 2023 – analysis of damped runs and production of ~~4 papers on outcomes
68 68
69 -Anyone interested in participating in the analysis for the 4 community papers is encouraged to contact Peter Hitchcock (aph28@cornell.edu). The data embargo for the broader community will be lifted in fall of 2022.
73 +Anyone interested in participating in the analysis for the 4 community papers is encouraged to contact Peter Hitchcock (aph28@cornell.edu). The data embargo for the broader community will tentatively be lifted in 2023.
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