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edited by S2S_ver
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Content changes

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69 69 Mason SJ, Graham NE (2002) Areas beneath the relative operating characteristics (ROC) and relative operating levels (ROL) curves: Statistical significance and interpretation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Volume 128, Issue 584, pages 2145–2166, July 2002 Part B. DOI: 10.1256/003590002320603584 [[http:~~/~~/onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/003590002320603584/pdf>>url:http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/003590002320603584/pdf]]
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72 72 Mason SJ (2008) Understanding forecast verification statistics. //Meteorol. Appl.//, **15**., 31-34. DOI: 10.1002/met.51 [[http:~~/~~/onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.51/abstract>>url:http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.51/abstract]]
73 73
74 74 Murphy AH (1970) The ranked probability score and the probability score: A comparison. UDC 551.509.314. Vol. 98, No. 12. 917-924 [[http:~~/~~/citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.395.1780&rep=rep1&type=pdf>>url:http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.395.1780&rep=rep1&type=pdf]]
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88 88 Richardson DS (2000) Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. //Quart. J. Royal Met. Soc.//, **126**, 649-667. DOI: 10.1002/qj.49712656313 [[http:~~/~~/onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49712656313/abstract>>url:http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49712656313/abstract]]
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92 92 Stephenson DB, Casati C, Ferro CAT, Wilson CA (2008) The extreme dependency score: a non-vanishing measure for forecasts of rare events. //Meteorol. Appl.//, **15**, 41-50. DOI: 10.1002/met.53 [[http:~~/~~/onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.53/abstract>>url:http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.53/abstract]]
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95 95 Stephenson DB, Coelho CAS, Jolliffe IT (2008) Two extra components in the Brier Score Decomposition, //Wea. Forecasting//, **23**, pp 752-757. doi: [[http:~~/~~/dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007WAF2006116.1>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007WAF2006116.1]]
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97 97 Taylor KE (2001) Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. //J. Geophys. Res.//, **106** (D7), 7183-7192. DOI: 10.1029/2000JD900719
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101 101 Weigel AP, Mason SJ (2011) The generalized discrimination Score for ensemble forecasts. //Mon. Wea. Rev.,//, **139**, 3069-3074. doi: [[http:~~/~~/dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05069.1>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05069.1]]
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104 104 Wilson LJ, Burrows WR, Lanzinger A (1999) A strategy for verification of weather element forecasts from an ensemble prediction system. //Mon. Wea. Rev.//, **127**, 956-970. doi: [[http:~~/~~/dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<0956:ASFVOW>2.0.CO;2>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493%281999%29127%3C0956:ASFVOW%3E2.0.CO;2]]
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112 112 Hudson D, Alves O, Hendon HH, Marshall AG (2011) Bridging the gap between weather and seasonal forecasting: Intraseasonal forecasting for Australia. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137,673–689, doi:10.1002/qj.769 [[http:~~/~~/onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.769/abstract>>url:http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.769/abstract]]
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116 116 Hudson D, Marshall AG, Yin Y, Alves O, Hendon HH (2013) Improving intraseasonal prediction with a new ensemble generation strategy. Mon Wea Rev//,// 141, 4429-4449. doi: [[http:~~/~~/dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00059.1>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00059.1]]
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118 118 Hudson D, Marshall AG, Alves O, Shi L, Young G (2015) Forecasting upcoming extreme heat on multi-week to seasonal timescales: POAMA experimental forecast products. Bureau Research Report, No. 1. Bureau of Meteorology, Australia ([[http:~~/~~/www.bom.gov.au/research/research-reports.shtml>>url:http://www.bom.gov.au/research/research-reports.shtml]]).
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121 121 Hudson D, Marshall AG, Alves O, Young G, Jones D, Watkins A (2015) Forewarned is forearmed: Extended range forecast guidance of recent extreme heat events in Australia. //Weather and Forecasting//. doi: [[http:~~/~~/dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0079.1>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0079.1]]
122 122
123 123 Jung T, Miller MJ, Palmer TN (2010) Diagnosing the Origin of Extended-Range Forecast Errors. //Mon. Wea. Rev.//, **138**, 2434–2446. doi: [[http:~~/~~/dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3255.1>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3255.1]]
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127 127 Kumar A, Chen M, Wang W (2011) An analysis of prediction skill of monthly mean climate variability. Clim. Dyn., 37, 1119-1131. [[http:~~/~~/link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-010-0901-4>>url:http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-010-0901-4]]
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130 130 Li S, Robertson AW (2015) Evaluation of Submonthly Precipitation Forecast Skill from Global Ensemble Prediction Systems. //Monthly Weather Review// **143**:7, 2871-2889. doi:[[http:~~/~~/dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00277.1>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00277.1]]
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132 132 Marshall AG, Hudson D, Wheeler MC, Hendon HH, Alves O. (2012) Simulation and prediction of the Southern Annular Mode and its influence on Australian intra-seasonal climate in POAMA. Climate Dynamics. 38:2483-2502, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1140-z. [[http:~~/~~/link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-011-1140-z>>url:http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-011-1140-z]]

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