Changes for document Monsoon Sub-Project

From version 21.2
edited by S2S_mon
on 2017/06/05 12:10
To version 22.1
edited by S2S_mon
on 2017/06/05 12:27
Change comment: There is no comment for this version

Content changes

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1 -**2S Monsoon Sub-project**
1 +**S2S Monsoon Sub-project**
2 2
3 3 Members:
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39 39 Many NMC maintain their own set of monsoon forecast products but a unified/seamless approach is typically lacking and there are very few available prediction products that target multiweek ensemble (probabilistic) prediction. The initial target for the forecast products will be rainfall and zonal wind (e.g., monsoonal westerlies), especially the extreme occurrences on ~~weekly time scales. The forecast metrics will necessarily target dynamical linkages so as to provide insight into model error. These new forecast products and metrics can be used both as part of a seamless prediction system (eg tying in with the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration project that target predictions to 5 days) and also to monitor and evaluate forecast model performance for depiction of monsoon intraseasonal variability.
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41 -It is envisioned that the [[Asian-Australian Monsoon Working Group>>url:http://www.clivar.org/asian-australian-monsoon||style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" title="Asian-Australian Monsoon Working Group"]] monsoon panel can play a coordinating role for developing the metrics/products with a necessarily unified approach across all key monsoon systems. To date, metrics for the Australian summer monsoon, based area mean rainfall and U850 across northern Australia as described in Marshall and Hendon (2015), and for the Indian summer monsoon, based on mean rainfall over the "core monsoon zone" as described by Rajeevan et al. (2010), have been produced for the historical record and are maintained in near real time [[here>>url:http://poama.bom.gov.au/project/s2s/monsoon/monsoon.html||style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" title="Monsoon rainfall indices"]].
41 +It is envisioned that the [[Asian-Australian Monsoon Working Group>>url:http://www.clivar.org/asian-australian-monsoon||style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" title="Asian-Australian Monsoon Working Group"]] monsoon panel can play a coordinating role for developing the metrics/products with a necessarily unified approach across all key monsoon systems.
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43 +
44 +**Progress to date**
45 +
46 +To date, metrics for the Australian summer monsoon, based area mean rainfall and U850 across northern Australia as described in Marshall and Hendon (2015), and for the Indian summer monsoon, based on mean rainfall over the "core monsoon zone" as described by Rajeevan et al. (2010), have been produced for the historical record and are maintained in near real time [[here>>url:http://poama.bom.gov.au/project/s2s/monsoon/monsoon.html||style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" title="Monsoon rainfall indices"]].
47 +
43 43 Marshall and Hendon (2015) assessed the predictive skill for active/break rainfall episodes in the Australian summer monsoon using the hindcasts from the BoM POAMA model, which is part of the S2S data base. They also showed that active rainfall episodes are ~~8 times more likely to occur in phases 6-7 of the MJO than in phases 1-2. They further showed The POAMA2 model (included in S2S archive) faithfully captures the modulation of monsoon rainfall by the MJO. Monsoon rainfall prediction with POAMA2 was found to be skillful to about 2 weeks lead time. New evaluation of the ACCESS-S model , based on the UKMO GC2 model that is the same used in the GloSea5 model that contributes to S2S, shows improved skill over the POAMA model by at least 1 week.
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45 45
46 -[[image:monsoon_comp_austr_Page_1.jpg]]
51 +[[image:monsoon_comp_austr_Page_1.jpg||height="100%" width="100%"]]
47 47
48 -A similar analysis of the role for the MJO for modulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall has also been done. Active rainfall occurs in phase 5 and suppressed in phases 8-1. In contrast to the Australian summer monsoon, the POAMA-2 model is not able to capture the modulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by the MJO, suggesting the rainfall forecasts for the Indian Monsoon are limited by the model's inability to faithfully reproduce the impacts of the MJO in the monsoon.
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50 -[[image:monsoon_comp_austr_Page_2.jpg]]
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52 -Sahai et al. (2015) assessed forecast skill for Indian summer monsoon rainfall using the CFSv2 as implemented at IITM India. They found that monsoon rainfall in the core zone was predictable for about 2 pentads, similar to the POAMA results for Australia. A comprehensive evaluation across all S2S models could be undertaken.
55 +A similar analysis of the role for the MJO for modulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall has also been done. Active rainfall occurs in phase 5 and suppressed in phases 8-1. In contrast to the Australian summer monsoon, the POAMA-2 model is not able to capture the modulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by the MJO, suggesting the rainfall forecasts for the Indian Monsoon are limited by the POAMA model's inability to faithfully reproduce the impacts of the MJO in the Indian summer monsoon.
53 53
57 +
58 +[[image:monsoon_comp_austr_Page_2.jpg||height="100%" width="100%"]]
59 +
60 +Sahai et al. (2015) assessed forecast skill for Indian summer monsoon rainfall using the CFS as implemented at IITM India. They found that monsoon rainfall in the core zone was predictable for about 2 pentads, similar to the POAMA results for Australia. A comprehensive evaluation across all S2S models could be undertaken.
61 +
54 54 [[image:monsoon_comp_austr_Page_3.jpg]]
55 55
56 56

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